Thursday, September 11, 2008

Crandall's Law

You know how sometimes, you're looking for something, and let's say you know for sure it's in one of two bags you have in front of you. So, you check the first bag, and lo and behold, it's not in there, so you check the second one, and Voila! there it is. That's Crandall's Law, a subset of Murphy's Law:

"If you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is an 80% chance that you'll get it wrong"

Know what I'm saying? I can't tell you how many times this has happened to me during this deployment. Whether I'm searching for an armory in one building or another, or a piece of equipment in one duffle bag or another, it's always the same: If I have a 50-50 chance of guessing correctly on the first shot, I get it wrong about 80% of the time.

So now you know. Crandall's Law. Spread the joy.

1 comment:

George said...

I think the 80% odds are actually too conservative. In my estimation, based on recent events, and multiple placebo controlled double blind studies, I calculate the chances of getting a 50/50 event to go in one's favor to be more like 10%, at best. I'll put money on that!